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Modern human civilization has been defined by the geology/geography of our planet.

We lived through a consistently paced human history until the time of the industrial revolution - then our civilization really took off.   The biggest factor was cheap and easy-to-find oil that literally gushed from the ground.

This highly efficient form of energy nurtured the heavy industries of steel, railroads, energy and enabled huge, leap-frog changes, wars, conquest, skyscrapers, ships, automotive etc.

And humans managed to conquer the vast oceans too — but not until we could navigate over the forbidden horizons of water.  Navigation away from safe shorelines required accurate timekeeping to navigate using the sun and moon to calculate precise locations.  Whereas, land-based navigation requires only a view of any landmark - any map will suffice.  Without the geography of oceans covering most of our planet, where was our need to innovate?

The same applies to the pressure to invent the radio.  Land based transit and communications had been doing quite well with telegraph wires and telephones.  But the oceanic barriers were well-tamed by wireless communication.  Radios were first used as wireless telegraphs to communicate with shipping.

Our planet geography has determined, directed, and demanded technical innovation.  The transoceanic underwater cable is still used today - but it is very expensive to lay thousand of miles of cable.  That cost and risk pushed for the launch of communication satellites that more than replaced undersea cable functionality.

The very geography of our planet has directed civilization.

“What if” is a great exercise in understanding history.  Imagine our civilization without any oil - we would have seen a very limited, slower industrial revolution - more evolutionary.  And of course, plentiful liquid fuel is key to our wide dependence on aviation.

Or imagine a history in a world without such vast oceans.  If our seas were small (like the Mediterranean or smaller), then land-based transit might still dominate - no need for as many ships.  We would have no need for navigation, no need for accurate timepieces, no pressing need for radio.  Geology is destiny.

I look forward to reading Geodestinies by Dr Walter Youngquist - called “the classic text on global resources and their depletion”.

A new edition for this 12 year old book is due out soon… good thing, as this is out-of-print (1997), with used copies going for around $80 and up…

The future of less will arrive for citizens of industrial and developing countries by small increments of change, but which, in retrospect will combine to be seen as a century of profound changes to a degree of rapidity and consequence as never before.  We now live moment by moment, only moderately aware of these incremental changes.  It is unlikely, although not impossible, that there will be catastrophic changes in lifestyles and economies.  But slowly and inevitably the related problems of resource depletion and population growth will become increasingly apparent.  We have the opportunity in various ways to modify the impact of these events, but so far there is little evidence this is being done. The industrial world and its political framework seems committed to the road of increased consumption and more people to consume, for that is what keeps the game going - for the moment, but is unsustainable very far into the future.

Walter Youngquist, November 2009 from http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5974

Amazon book reviewers had nothing but great comments.

Worth checking this blog since it attracts some very wise comments. http://www.theoildrum.com/

Now we begin to know just how serious is our problem with global warming.   

Al Gore is getting out a ruthlessly realistic message: civilization needs to choose - although he does not own this message.   Gore is just a vehicle for connecting with millions of viewers.  On the Late Show with David Letterman he was promoting his book - Our Choice.  He speaks directly about the extent of the problem to a serious and respectful Letterman; later too with Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert.

Gore on David Letterman
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhQSfXJzXQs
alternate link http://www.watch-letterman.com/2009/november-03-2009-al-gore-brad-paisley

And Jon Stewart also had Gore on his show
http://www.grist.org/article/2009-11-05-gore-on-the-daily-show-extended-dance-remix/

This is a sea change, a paradigm shift.   The issue is now mainstreamed.   And in the coming months, in Copenhagen and in unfolding climate events - the issue will saturate the public.

Climate Progress calls it a must read book.
http://climateprogress.org/2009/11/05/new-york-time-al-gore-carbon-billionaire-not-fox-news/
http://climateprogress.org/2009/11/01/al-gore-our-choice-a-plan-to-solve-the-climate-crisis-by-al-gore-solutions-book/

We are getting the sense that governments are unable to solve our really big problems - and the very biggest, climate destabilization cannot be solved, it can only be mitigated and adapted to.   We can no longer squander carbon for transitory comfort because it robs from the future.   Facing a painful future of our own making, we now must reshape our social/psychological lives.   The destabilzation of climate extends to civilization itself.

The debate on the realities of both climate change and Peak Oil has moved from ‘are they real?’ to questions concerning timing, magnitude and impact.  At the same time, expanding research in ‘temporal discounting’ in economics (called ‘impulsivity’ in psychology), is shedding light on how steeply we value the present over the future, a trait with ancient origins.  Knowing this tendency, how can we expect factual updates on peak oil and climate change to behaviorally compete with Starbucks, sex, slot machines, and ski trips? Science is rapidly increasing our knowledge about the planet.  To affect change however, we might have to become equally knowledgeable about ourselves. Living for the Moment while Devaluing the Future   From the OilDrum.com 2007

We should act without fear and move forward.   And we want to avoid the irrational narcotic effect of hope because it allows us to ignore and delay.   Too much hope fosters inaction and inattention.  We hope for yet uninvented technology, hope for unrealized political and superhuman industrial solutions and most of all we hope for a leap in human evolution that might enable it all.   Last year, William Prust delivered a simpatico idea in his popular message “Our Time” at the site http://localsteps.org/   Gore is just saying it is Our Choice to make.   William Prust is just saying right now is the time.   Meanwhile, Gore is trying to lighten up just a bit when appearing on The Colbert Report:

Immediate, total power.  Ruthless to all matters of atmospheric engineering
Assign tasks, delegate specific responsibility.. including enforcement that extends globally.

First - all corporate charters amended to adhere to progressive strictures of no carbon output.  All consumer products & services will have  CO2 and GHG and energy expenditure figures.

 If no compliance, then no sale, if no co-operation, then no permission to exist.
       Carbon tax will extend to all this

Advertising must include these numbers.
Advertising cannot promote superfluous carbon or CO2 exhaust
- A packaging council to regulate & dictate packaging to be minimal, non-toxic, recyclable.

All energy use with warnings of environmental damage.

Energy efficiency enabled, enforced and enhanced  (e5) 
     Inefficient power consumption super taxed

Water, Electric and heating for minimal use = no tax, beyond minimal survival — heavily, heavily, heavily taxed.
Assign enforcement by neighborhoods watch people
  
Carbon tax,  Swift and immediate.  For all carbon consumption… building a car, fuel, bottled water, etc.
    Carbon tax rebate, relief for objects that are carbon sinking or efficiency producing

For gas cars.. 10 gal/month no tax.. each gallon above that is $5/gaL TAX…above 10 gal/ month super tax

         Mileage tax = good mileage=low tax, bad mileage= supertaxed

Immediate and ruthless efficiency to energy usage
           halt all carbon stupid product mfg now.  ie No incandescent bulbs ever again,
          Develop or subsidize LCDs
        Insulation, heating, water, building codes all gold standard

            Exisitng housing insulation ..

Sponsored Resource sharing.  or heavy taxes on not sharing resources.
rideshare, shipping, commerce.

All Airline flights over land are immediately prohibited
        Only flights over water allowed  - large bodies, full planes,

. 
All land transit by train subsidized $ govt supported by taxes.
Railroads subsidized and run as a national public utility 

All coal plants shut down immediately, pending solutions.
All energy companies nationalized public utilities,

Immediate research projects:
Research into clean coal.
Research into superconductivity

Research into Fusion power
Solar, Wind, tidal, geo thermal,

Communications will be run as national public utilities, non co-operation means nationalization
       
Population: ZPG and less 
       One child/family immediately.   birth control widely available and fully provided

       Single child family
       Women bearing more than one child taxed heavily, 
       Bearing 3 children means enforced sterilization, men in a multi-child relationship snipped.

All Conflict resolution must be carbon free.  No combustibles, no engines. Wars and violence will be carbon free.   This is to be rigidly enforced.  If violent then bows and arrows and spears

Severity of these restrictions increases as CO2 fails to decline

Too severe?  Then return to first premise - to  Live or to Die?


Richard Pauli
Sept 2008
Seattle


author’s note:  I started to write footnotes and set links, then I figured it would just invite arguments over sources and data.  All this is based on easily discoverable science, mostly from the IPCC reports.  The political science conjecture, is just that - conjecture.  But it should be beyond policy, it should be global law